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04
COMMERCIAL × AI

Case Study: Winning in Post-COVID Retail (Ukraine, 2021)

Overview

In the aftermath of COVID-19, a leading brewing company in Ukraine - part of a major global group - not only survived repeated lockdowns but emerged stronger. Despite closures in HoReCa, the company maintained its #1 market position, increased profit, and safeguarded 1,300 jobs across three modern breweries. The retail landscape, however, had been transformed: modern trade surged to over 50% of the company’s business (up from 40% pre-pandemic), demanding a fundamental shift in strategy.

Challenge: Swimming with Whales

The shift towards modern trade exposed structural weaknesses:

1. Volatile performance in modern formats, heavily dependent on deep price promotions.

2. Strongholds in the east and west underrepresented in nationwide assortment matrices of retail chains.

3. Poor in-store execution and a sales team structure misaligned with new realities.

4. Service levels lagging behind top FMCG peers; logistics failing to meet customer expectations.

5. Retailers leveraging increased bargaining power to demand deeper discounts and longer credit - eroding profitability.

6. Intensified competition triggered a destructive 'promo spiral', where discounts moved share without growing the category.

Approach: Fix the Fundamentals and Harness AI

My Role: CEO, reporting to the EVP Eastern Europe.

Recognizing that this was a business-critical transformation, I mobilized cross-functional teams across Sales, Marketing, Supply Chain, Finance, and IT. Our strategy combined back-to-basics discipline with technology-driven innovation:

1. Organizational reset: Shifted from geographic to customer-centric structure, revised segmentation by profitability, and re-engineered trade terms to stop financial leakage.

2. Service level upgrade: Built cross-functional account teams, giving Supply Chain and Finance direct customer-facing KPIs for satisfaction.

3. Promo strategy overhaul: Increased promo pressure from 35% to 42% of turnover, with focus on profitable SKUs and tailored customer needs, regaining in-store visibility without margin collapse.

4. AI-powered execution: Deployed machine learning image recognition (95% accuracy) via 580 field merchandisers, providing real-time insights on shelf presence, pricing, and out-of-stocks. Incentives were tied to objective AI data.

Results: From Vulnerability to Strength

1. Closed the market share gap to competitors in modern trade, achieving a solid #2 position.

2. Eliminated all loss-making customer accounts; restored profitability to breakeven or above.

3. Ranked #1 preferred supplier among all beverage producers by the independent “Advantage” agency - across sales, marketing, logistics, and product quality.

4. AI adoption delivered unprecedented visibility, agility, and precision in execution.

Strategic Takeaways

- Resilient companies don’t just survive disruption - they reshape around new market realities.

- Cross-functional integration is as critical as commercial strategy in modern trade.

- Smart use of AI can turn execution into a competitive weapon , not just a hygiene factor.

- Protecting profitability requires courage to reset terms and resist unsustainable demands.

Closing Statement

This case proved that disruption - whether from a pandemic or retail consolidation - can be an accelerator of transformation. By fixing fundamentals, mobilizing cross-functional discipline, and pioneering AI in retail execution, I transformed modern trade from the company’s weakest channel into a platform for long-term growth. It stands as evidence that even in crisis, strategic clarity and innovation can turn vulnerability into strength.

Cases

01 · TURNAROUND
Brewery Turnaround: Soviet to Leader
→ Read case study
02 · ASSET PROTECTION
Protecting €132m Asset from State Pressure
→ Read case study
03 · CRISIS LEADERSHIP
Business Continuity: Revolution & War
→ Read case study
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